The Plague

Trump is well-known for his uncensored tweets which are bad for science and fact-based discussions but good for sentimental interactions.

Yesterday he tweeted, "...the World was hit by the Plague from China. 100 Trade Deals wouldn't make up the difference -- and all those innocent lives lost!" https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1260578860992737285

Scientific evidence has come up and revealed that half of the patients were infected by those who are yet to show syndromes while 90% of those infected never reached out for medical attention, for reasons not yet identified.

This is leading to the unfortunate fact that the vaccine, if there is one, will only be protecting the privileged -- if there are so many patients running around undetected, a complete screening of the population will be unaffordable to most parts of the world, resulting in a barricade of heavily stricken COVID-19 patients DDOSing the hospital systems until each and every one is down.

If you cannot understand the logic behind the last paragraph, then probably you don't know that screening is only effective if a small group of "at risk" people can be identified. For some common cancers, it would be those aged around 50-65 -- they are still valuable assets to their families and the society and if there are cheap tests that can be done on them, a lot of families will be saved and the cost of running the society is lowered.

For quite some parts of the world, people live and work in an extremely crowded environment and travel around for work and study extensively, thus there is no effective definition of "high-risk" group. These parts of the world would suffer heavily since vaccination might be expensive enough such that not everyone could afford it, and if they people are not wealthy enough to be taxed substantially, the hospital system would not be able to take the extra load soon -- dealing with the COVID-19 patients on their first attack is not the only extra load. Recovered patients might need quite a lot of follow-ups and no report has said that our immune response (no matter to the virus or vaccine) will give us permanent protection.

For HK people, it should be well noted that there is no way we can live like the Danish citizens coz we just have no readily habitable land, even if all the 'brown areas' are released. We will all need the vaccines eventually and we will not be able to get it any time soon. Our hospital system will be on full load for several years and you will see how our precious medical system will break down, followed by the mainstream education system, and then the economic structure will not hold anymore.

I am not very optimistic about how HK will come out of this challenge. Our obesity rate is around 40%, and most of the population is above 40 years old. This virus is just a terminator for big cities where the land price is high -- often due to supply being scarce so no financial trick could solve the problem quickly. Most shops(including private schools) profit by high turnovers achieved with crowding their customers and so many business models stemmed from this paradigm will take a great hit since there is no alternative way to do things.

This is a plague that KILLS a lot of the "ways of living" as we are used to as city dwellers. The proportion of the population killed will not be that significant at the end since countries will rather kill businesses rather than people, compared to the last plagues.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : covid-19

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溫的若

Author:溫的若
人類有很多不同的屬性,有一兩種偏離正常(就當是十分之一吧)是很平常的。假設人有5種互相沒有關係的屬性,五個數值都是「正常」的機會只有一半左右。
但是如果五個數值之中,同時有三種是「不正常」的,那麼100人之中,就只有不到一人,堪稱「異界人」了。

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