This is not looking good at all
This is the first time I have truly felt fear in my life in reality (having nightmares don't count ok?). I have been nervous during exams and dictations but my meager knowledge in history is warning me that a highly transmissible and elusive virus that is really dangerous because it can evolve at such a speed where people just get sick again and again without end until most people left have efficient antibodies against it.
Flu kills too, but most people do not really need any medical attention (or else the Japanese would be quite dead since they have a habit of, for example, going to work for 10 days with a fever). COVID-19 is NOT as lenient. At least one tenth of the patients really need professional support to get through. The hospital systems, anywhere in the world you can name, are NEVER prepared for mass infection of such caliber.
Which means the ACTUAL death rate, if COVID-19 is let free to run like the flu (which actually has got some vaccines), is nearly 10%, as in Italy.
Worse, many profitable economic activities, not including the cruise ships which are just the tip of the iceberg, revolved around old people who have accumulated some capital. For them , investment probably means giving the money to somebody else to manage. They don't go to work so they spend their time doing leisure activities and most of the entertainment (by volume) is actually targeted to this market. Medical needs as well as full time caregivers get their demand mainly from this group. The property market is profitable because the old people can afford to live in the rural areas, can buy new flats in the city center and lent them to the young adults who need to work long hours -- since the buyer is NOT the young adults, the developers can puff their work up with nice decorations and sell the flats as "luxurious items" even though the living condition is really bad (small and dirty design). The real users (like me) would certainly vote against such practices and refuse to buy (costs millions, so must be picky) while pressuring the government to set up laws which would protect the living condition of one's future HOME.
It means many companies would go bankrupt and even if they are saved by the government they will no longer be able to get easy profit like they did. Banks would take a huge blow and many people will lose their jobs (which is about making easy money out of the elderly -- no I don't mean they didn't work hard or had cheated, but that the "technical difficulty" of their business operations is not that high).
Technical difficulty is a REAL wall. Years of music training had given me a strong belief that there are things which people, as a group, have difficulty dealing with. When it is about important things like economy and social stability, the results will be much worse than playing a piece badly.
tag : 心理歷史學
| 主頁 |