[SF]The Rivals

There were two opposing ideologies that any culture would have to decide to take side: (Side A)Members can develop truly intimate and trusting relationships with each other because basically everyone you meet has a good and fair chance to have "his big day" for his achievements and justified rewards, or (side B) that members keep distance with each other even if they form a family because people's social status are given by the whims of the system and not through any ethical reasons that is above the judgement of the system.

Countries at the extremes of the spectrum will always try to kill the other out of instinct, because the members would find the other side immensely repulsive. If genetic modification technology is available, the two will definitely be engaged in designing bioweapons that targets the distinctive lifestyle -- Side A would develop a highly contagious but not really lethal pathogen that would kill if the people are not ethical.

This doesn't mean the pathogen is intelligent. Nope. But keeping good personal hygiene and having affection to other strangers of members of the society while having a generally healthy life would make this just a little bit more dangerous above the flu. This sounds like "how come this could be a weapon" for Side A people but this pathogen would run havoc in Side B due to cultural difference.

If people are taught to follow "what the system tells you to do" but not what scientists or the professional medics say, they have a slim chance to lightly shrug off this pathogen. For example, if the system usually has the people sharing their eating utensils, people will not change their habit even though they are told this would become a source of infection. Also, since people are constantly competing for rewards allocated by the system and doing things against their own will, many of the members have grudges against the system and the winners and they would go against what the medics says on purpose. This would make a normally controllable light disease become a long troll that wouldn't end, because a system which rewards people for their obedience would in general have a deficit in their medical resources such that the people can be forced into obdience for a better social status and therefore protection for their own life. This would make the system highly vulnerable to any outbreak, especially if a good proportion of the patients will be in need of medical care in order to recover fully.

On the other hand, Side B would target the casual intimacy of people from Side A and create a highly lethal pathogen that doesn't spread easily unless through intimate contact, things like hugging onto each other for an hour or french kissing for a long minute, or sleeping in the same room for the night. They would make the window as long as possible -- the person would be infectious for a long time without becoming ill and by the time he got ill all the people around him would suddenly become ill together. Non-lethal (death rate <20%) but impairing pathogen will be chosen.

Side B could therefore target anyone from Side A who will be soon going back to Side A.

It is to be noted that such attacks will not be received without retaliation. Therefore, it is highly possible that the two sides will simultaneously launch the attack due to, for example, a deal not favored by both sides.

All scientists would definitely adopt pathogens which induce symptoms similar to the cold or flu for "best cover". The human lungs is a very susceptible organ and easy target, so both sides' weapon could have very similar syndromes and at the end the contagious form from Side B would mask the work of Side A, and in the end both sides would suffer a blow in the economy that is so great, that the ending will totally depend on Luck.

p.s. Entries from 24/2 onwards have been uploaded.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學 科幻

Everyone is WHO

People are too confident when they laugh at how WHO is "controlled" by the Chinese regime.

Every country will lie if the lie will be beneficial and if they think they can get away with it.

People are just like that.

The interpretation of any research data cannot be done without putting into consideration the methodology used. Things like "how many patients are there" are strongly limited by factors like "people will not go to see a doctor if they think seeing a doctor is not beneficial to them". In addition to that, the medics all have limited resources so they are not checking everyone but only those who they think are susceptible or "looks like it". This is not conspiracy theory but canon daily practice. If there are still too much cases to be checked upon, they will be postponing the tests to days later if they think the patient is doing well on one's own.

It is quite meaningless to say "how many people are infected", but "the medics had uncovered how many cases".

So the death rate is quite a joke at this time point. Not to mention ventilators and artificial lungs are scarce so the death rate from different countries cannot be pooled together. Death rates would soar if a huge amount of patients need breathing support -- in the case of mass onset. It is possible that this virus will normally be dormant in a carrier but as the economy goes down, people start suffering from nutrition and miss regular workout but some keep working very hard in a polluted environment while others live in very crowded closed space, it might actually trigger a mass breakout "from nowhere" just due to a change in temperature, for example and things would be disastrous. Wuhan has been closed off for a month but new cases are bouncing up by hundreds if my info source is correct-- which is my basis of suspicion.

COVID-19 is presenting itself as the perfect candidate for data manipulation and news control. Truth on critical data like "how many people are infected" and "how many % of the infected people dies" etc. are not yet known, two months since professionals are alerted to the doings of this novel virus.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

Reflections on writing in English(2/2)

The most important thing to know is how some nations can have democracy and therefore the government is empowered while being supervised to take care of the minorities and to distribute the critical resources such as medicine and education to bring out the positive potential of the people such that people can be held responsible to the political decisions they make and come to wise decisions while being productive instead of becoming "the origin of global disasters".

And no, the logic of my liberal education was as bad as my writing. It was more like venting out on the next generation on the painful tragedies that human beings have created on Earth. Psychology in my undergraduate years was also taught like that. All the bullshits from those pioneers of making money out of susceptible crowd etc... you know what. I didn't pay to learn all those cheap scams which one can learn elsewhere.

After reading these 2 months' English productions of my own, I have realized that I have never been able to enjoy a good communcation culture and I have always been vented on by those around me. This is why I don't feel living alone bad for all these 10 years. There are worse things than living alone.

題目 : 自省時間 - 部落格分类 : 單身自由

Reflections on writing in English(1/2)

I have never been an excellent writer although I am on the prolific side. I guess it is because writing feels more like ranting and venting out for me rather than communicating. Making powerful assertion is what Chinese writing is strong at. English writing is on the practical side and emphasize more on communication.

I have always lived in a poor family where no amount of communication would get me what is essential to bring my potential out. My parents suffered from PTSD due to historical events and they are basically anti-development. This is really common in groups where they have seen people doing bad things to each other and acting stupid in the name of development or other seemingly good motivation. (So I am not surprised that people coming from typical "Band 5 schools" have the same problem.)

This is very common in many countries where dark history has become a burden to cultural progress. I understand why a lot of schools in HK has decided to dump the history classes as a whole because seeing people failing again and again in the 5000years is not edcuation but psychological abuse.

I have cried so many times when I studied history during my lower secondary school years and I can't say I think it is a good way to get educated. I want to know the "correct answer" -- no one would want to read Edison's exprimental records on making the first light bulb and how the researchers got sacked failing to find the material that would glow and doesn't crumble under heat, right? It is quite meaningless to all of those who don't aspire to become a scientist.

題目 : 自省時間 - 部落格分类 : 單身自由

Let them take the stage(2/2)

Taking the main stage or holding a 24-hour-long recital which can be heard kilometers afar doesn't make you popular. It can make you infamous just like a particular side-kick in Doraemon.

Yup. Let them take the stage. One's love for music is not an excuse to excruciate your audience. The Chinese regime has always imposed a positive attitude in its propaganda but a positive attitude towards a bad thing or an unsightly action taken in the name of something good has always been a one-way ticket to building a negative image in the educated world.

I am predicting that the world is going to be divided into people who are educated or have the potential to be highly educated and those who aren't (especially those who just don't have the potential even if they have been provided the resources) after this unfortunately rampant virus.

And yes the two sides are going to initiate wars against each other if the people cannot live in the corresponding system suitable for each side respectively -- what HKers experienced since last year will soon become global confrontations between ethnicites, religious groups and nations.

There are FUNDAMENTAL differences in how things should be done for people of different cultural potential. It is just like not everyone should spend 20 years in school. People have different aptitudes. It is not a political stance. It will be proven as a scientific fact if social science and cognitive science become advanced enough.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

Let them take the stage(1/2)

Everyone knows that a huge population in China is now staying at home, having "nothing" to do due to the novel virus, so everyone who have detected a change in content or consensus in forums, social medias and video sites such as YouTube would be ready to link it to the "nothing to do" group.

The Chinese regime might consider itself in a perfect situation now that they have an overpowered number of users which can create any new trend they want on any site they desire.

They have forgotten that many people around the world are very used to the daily scene that "Chinese come in a huge group and do eye-catching things you can't neglect" and "Chinese are known to be noisy and disruptive at times especially when they communicate (including within themselves)".

People are going to notice that the Chinese have take the stage. Some would definitely propose a yelling competition with them. If they post a video, then we post one too.

I hope people understand that you don't need a million KOLs. We only need one high quality for every viable stance and every supporter gives "like" to a hopefully impeccable argument.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

Updates on my current life

1. Hiking becomes cross country recently and I usually went up the hills when amateurs get lost in the suburbs near sunset and had to be guided to safety.

Unluckily HK has just a few hundred km of hiking trails so every km must contain at least 10 thousand people, i.e. 10 people per meter if we all go up into the hills.

Everyone would only get a 1m space if we go up once a week, spread up evenly on every day of the week.

Yup HK is definitely too crowded for living healthily so our medical system is breaking down unavoidably.

2. I missed many chances to update my blog in the past 2 weeks because there are just so many bogus essays which I spent time reading only to find out too many doubts for me to base my decisions upon.

(link added on 26/2)
https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%e5%9c%8b%e9%9a%9b/article/20200226/s00014/1582655962228

3. Just added the entries from 15/2. Chinese synopsis will not be added for the articles intended for mature readers. Yeah call me discrimination against those who have bad English. However look at all those academic papers -- they are all in English. If you can't read English yourselves, you will be easily brainwashed these days and I don't want my work discriminated by such a biased group of readers since I am not getting money from my work anyway.

題目 : 自省時間 - 部落格分类 : 單身自由

tag : 行山

[Old wine]Karma of Poverty

https://www.thenewslens.com/article/131163
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/131165

I can't agree more with the prize winner's opinions on the karma of poverty. I am very familiar with the tragic scenarios mentioned in these articles and I want to vent out (again) after reading this.
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[anime review] F/GO ADF Babylonia 1-17

It was not interesting at all for the first half of the show, and I actually dropped it twice, but the plot grows more and more intense and finally it is now reaching the climax in the coming episode (18).

There are quite some unforgettable psychological plot twists, although the likes of me who had been writing stories for years could easily guess what will be next for the obvious hints given.

CGs were used in a lot of the fighting scenes and the asthetics is often well taken care of which is a point of merit for this series.

CloverWorks is the wonderful production unit behind Franxx, and it stemmed from A-1, which had produced asthetically amazingly pleasing 3-D motions since VividRed Operation 7 years ago.

The protagonist is an amazingly positive and perceptive guy which would have succeeded in a lot of scenarios and I can fully understand why the game had been inspiring to so many people that it was made into an anime.

This guy is not very powerful himself but he can make powerful allies out of "big bad guys" would have scared most people away. He could see through the reasons why bad people are bad and take them back to his side.

I could very well see why a lot of people from around the world have come to appreciate such "fantasy" stories and treasure them at their hearts. It has done what perhaps the Bible had intended to inspire without going through all those formalities and brainwashing. You can't just tell people to repent upon their sins and think this would actually work. You have to walk with them and let them admit the light the lies underneath the darkness of the heart.

《絕對魔獸戰線》一開始真的很悶,我掉番了兩次,但後來看到評價就回心轉意忍下去了。去到最近幾集果然就精彩了,而且令我深深體會日本人如何精於把別人的「發想」改造並融入自己的一套,而且做得效果更出色、成品形式更精緻。

題目 : 動畫心得 - 部落格分类 : 漫畫卡通

tag : FGO 科幻

In/Spectre for real

These days I looked at the "news" and "articles" (including academic ones) and couldn't help thinking of the anime now on air called "In/Spectre" by my fav ACG story writer (ok I guess Kyo would prefer being called a novelist).

As someone who is endowed with the level of intellect which is pure fun for me to deploy my deductive power, I was turned off by so many blatantly fake news, novel disguised as opinion articles and papers which are obviously going to be withdrawn.

I couldn't bring myself to write about them one by one because they are coming in like tsunami.

However, just as how people are engrossed in fantasy could kill like what is depicted in "In/Spectre", psychological phenomena which can kill actually exists in reality.

I can't agree more what Kyo is trying to say in this story as a fellow writer these days that "In/Spectre" is going to be one of those time-withstanding classic for me.

最近假消息如海嘯湧現,已無法逐一吐糟。看清身邊人的水平也不失為一件好事。在這個背景下看《虛構推理》真的額外有感受,令我私下認為這作品將會被視為一套經典文學。

題目 : 動畫心得 - 部落格分类 : 漫畫卡通

tag : 城平京 虛構推理

Healthy break

I have been asking around people who work in the heavily affected industries. There were grim stories where 90% of employees were sacked and property owners being obstinate about collecting rent on time.

Obviously I was unable to talk to those whose business have completely shut off and they are staying at home.

Hong Kong had grown too used to having a 'prosperous' economy', where a lot of the population think it is good not to ask about things other than making easy money. As a developed area, people should avoid doing things "anyone can do" if those can be outsourced or done by automated systems.

Health care system will break down if people don't cook for themselves. How can you expect others to take care of your body when they only have minimal wage which barely maintain their lives with long working hours and therefore no hope for sustainable development?

There are so many deep problems with the "HK style" living that our way of life was not sustainable. The confrontations that broke out last year was a good warning. If people are put to a healthy break and we can reflect on a better solution, HK still has hope for a bright future.

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

Conspiracy came upon midnight clear(2/2)

Medics are people too. When one is engrossed in the fear of an unknown enemy, the real boss can slipped by unnoticed. In well-supported cases, wild type EBOLA kills around 20% of the patients. A genetically tuned down version should be half as lethal by itself.

But when masked by a novel pathogen, it will ground all the infected and therefore makes the perfect combo.

Look, Ebola also comes with decreased lymphocytes count, and it kills by activating cytokines cyclone. Sounds like the same story right?

Coincidentally, the first EBOLA vaccine was just out last December and CDC advised "after receiving the vaccine, it is important to continue infection prevention precautions against Ebola (for example, wear PPE that covers clothing and skin and prevents any exposure of the eyes, nose, and mouth; wash hands; avoid contact with blood and body fluids) because the vaccine may not be 100% effective for everyone."

If COVID-19 is only a mask to a GMed EBOLA bio-weapon, we will see a statistically significant difference in the mildness/severeness of syndromes in different areas, and death rate will be directly related to critical hospital equipment such as artificial lungs' availability while transmission rate would highly be dependent on hygiene practice of the area.

See? That's why I have never written a bio-weapon SF. I am not too confident with my self-learnt microbiology etc. but I can well create scary scenarios from what I know.

p.s. this is a rewritten, shorter version of the last article. Please comment which version you think is better. Thank you.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學 covid-19

Conspiracy came upon midnight clear(1/2)

Every reader here probably knows I love science fictions, especially the mystery-solving type.

Over the years my love had become something that is close to an auto-conspiracy generator and I can't deny it is my main form of entertainment (including seeing how other people have played out with the same setting).

Many must have noticed that I didn't try writing something in the bioweapon genre. There are so many grim plots which had come and gone in my mind that I didn't dare to write because I had never had any formal training in the related fields to ensure I never inspired someone else to actually carry out something really evil but instead being able to protect people from possible tragedies by writing the story out.

For example, Ebola has only one weakness as a bioweapon: the patient's syndrome can famously be VISIBLE to the naked eye and raise instant alert in any normal witness. If someone can TUNE DOWN this property of attacking so many cell types, and instead let it attack just some of those whose damage is 100% not visible to naked eye, it would be quite usable, because Ebola manifests a series of common syndromes such as "fever (87%), fatigue (76%), vomiting (68%), diarrhea (66%), and loss of appetite (65%)"(source: CDC) and most medics will NOT consider the possibility of contracting EBOLA in a big city such as WuHan, China unless they see the external bleeding.

People DO NOT find out about the truth if they have an easier explanation. If a generally non-lethal virus which is as contagious as the flu but novel to human immune system, and which creates similar syndromes as the bioweapon is released as a cover, this would create a really good chance for the "targeted population wash" to be carried out -- you can burn away the corpses immediately under the disguise of an "epidemic" caused by a novel pathogen, and with people kept in known and fixed locations such as their homes while all delivery resources are controlled by the government as a part of "containment policy", there is no crime-setting more perfect than this.

Yup, the first thing I thought of when I first read what happened in WuHan was NOT "mysterious pneumonia". I instantly considered the possibility of a GMed EBOLA outbreak masked by a novel pathogen with the latter aimed at catching people's attention.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學 covid-19

Conspiracy theory hopefully?(2/2)

COVID19 was supposedly only harmful to the weak and the old, so the impact on the society is acceptable. Though, due to Asian culture, where people are not encouraged to train up and resources are often spent on luxury instead of supporting EVERYONE to stay strong, unfortunately the "weak" extends to a huge proportion of the population and that was what went awfully wrong. When the concentration of a pathogen is high due to a great density of patients, immune system will not be effective at putting away the danger.

This will explain the unbelievably long window variation, low detection rate in China (but not Singapore), cases of "repeated" infections, while a significant proportion of the patients had negative test results while having "typical" syndromes plus the reluctance for outsiders to gain first-hand sample of the virus.

US is smart when it used robots to handle the so-called COVID19 patients. They knew something much more serious was happening there. Anyone would have recognized the similarities to EBOLA and who knows what is out there? The Wuhan team has been infamous since several years ago its research on making corona virus on animals to become viable on human hosts been banned by the US. Then we have the P4 and the team was now back to WuHan. People cannot be condemned to have suspect what have happened there.

If some strain corona virus can be manipulated to be able to infect the human body, why can't EBOLA be tuned down in the same way?

It is not the tests that are defective or the window could be very long/repeated infection possible. The "heavy syndromes" were created by another pathogen and the patients contract COVID19(which is like a serious flu) earlier or later. SARS was exactly like that -- the patients who died were found to have been infected by another non-lethal pathogen (found by HKU team) not long before they contract the corona virus that induced SARS.

Remember even EBOLA doesn't have a 100% death rate. It is around 50% only. No vaccines, no effective drugs yet. Luckily it doesn't transmit by air, so it is not the end of the world yet. A weakened EBOLA that doesn't explode in your face (which would kill anyone without high-grade protective clothing) and has a visible rash (so you could just get away seeing one) but only kill those who are in close contact with the patient while anyone who carries the pathogen can be "grounded" by a mild and easy-to-spread virus and therefore removed from the population is an ideal biochemical weapon combo indeed.

I do hope that this turns out to be another direction of conspiracy theory that is completely fictitious. I won't spend time writing conspiracy theories if I think the possibility is very low. I would rather spend the time writing some science fiction that would inspire people to create a better future.

p.s. No Chinese synopsis will be available since it is impossible to compress the logic without stating the arguments -- it is irresponsible just to talk about the deductions/conclusions. Also, this is intended for mature Chinese readers since those who can read comfortably in English tend to be highly literal and are less prone to panicking.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : covid-19

Conspiracy theory hopefully?(1/2)

Covid19 is demonstrating some uncanny properties that made me read quite some articles I wouldn't have imagined myself reading 10 years ago.

At first it alarmed me that it spreads like SARS, with patients' reactions varied like AIDS, with an alarming pathology that reminds me of EBOLA.

Since I don't have any formal training in Medicine nor Microbiology, I decided I would read up a bit before writing this article up. That includes verifying the details mentioned in eye-catching essays (which several got withdrawn since even an amateur like me could spot problems in those) and reading pathology of EBOLA.

It is quite clear that the first COVID19 cases were not related to the notorious wet market and appeared in December 2019. Given the now-known properties of the virus, which spreads quite easily, it is very difficult to imagine that massive breakout occurs as late as in mid Jan.

This points to two possibilities the media had not dared to mention yet:

1. It is possible that there are two pathogens, if not different versions of the same virus. The first one that broke out in perhaps late November was deadly but did not transmit easily.

2. Covid19 is released to mask the "zero pathogen" and possibly has some protective effect to the population of the first one. The two pathogens have similiar syndromes. This would explain why the government has not seeked action to prevent the initial spread of COVID19.

No one would be surprised if some deadly virus has been cooked up in the P4 lab in WuHan. Afterall, it is a P4.

Unfortunate incidents could have happened such that a deadly virus ran amok and was unable to be contained by the authority.

To prevent worst case scenario, covid19 was created or summoned, a milder but more contagious version of what ran amok or covid19 was believed to be able to create some protection for the population against the original deadly virus, as a result being able to mask the "zero event". It is also possible that there are several versions of covid19 being released because no one is sure what would be protective and soon only those who get the protective version will survive and transmit the protection to other surviving members.

It is possible that the "zero virus" took up after EBOLA and AIDS, like the latter which has a very long window and like the former which is directly destructive to the vital organs. However, direct fluid contact is required for both. To "contain" the dangerous patients, the highly-contagious COVID19 was released into the wet market -- a co-infection of the zero virus with COVID19 will turn the patient quite sick almost instantly, preventing them from running far away. AIDS patients often die of originally non-lethal diseases.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : covid-19

自我介紹

溫的若

Author:溫的若
人類有很多不同的屬性,有一兩種偏離正常(就當是十分之一吧)是很平常的。假設人有5種互相沒有關係的屬性,五個數值都是「正常」的機會只有一半左右。
但是如果五個數值之中,同時有三種是「不正常」的,那麼100人之中,就只有不到一人,堪稱「異界人」了。

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