My answer is that a 50% cut is impossible, but anything betwee 10-40% fluctuation is highly possible.
If this virus kills a lot of old people eventually after May, because the government cannot contain the virus within the "just back from China" circle by slowing down the influx of people returning after the Lunar New Year through border control e.g. quoata to make new cases easily accountable, then a lot of empty flats, especially in the public and subsidized housing estates will appear.
Those who inherted the property might not sell it but they would eventually rent it out, resulting in an ample supply of rented flats thus suppressing the value of of investment for all future properties.
Though in the process the breakdown of medical system would kill a lot of patients and doctoros the same, this could be replaced by non-local doctors and nurses -- many HK people do not live a healthy life so a lot of the medical resources are actually wasted -- if I am the HKSAR gov decision maker I will also be adamant in placing sufficient resources into the medical system until the people are willing to fight for a healthy life.
This explains why the HK gov is NOT willing to do anything significant against WARS. Carrie is actually smiling.
I really need to work on my chores, cleaning the place, acquiring and managing essential stocks in view of the coming attack of 2019-nCov.
Money is not worth it if it is then spent on medical bills.
Asia for the Lunar New Year had been successfully cancelled for the best.
There would have been some carriers spreading the virus in the planes, as these countries are common choices for any WuHan refugee (yes I prefer to call them this) and those few hours on the plane will be really dangerous since the planes are never really cleaned thoroughly between flights.
Worse, you will definitely be sharing the same resources like hotels(esp. swimming pool and hot spring spa) and tourists' attractions with carriers who spread the virus without falling ill themselves. Moreover, if you get sick, you get into a hospital where the medics don't speak Chinese.
Hong Kong people have gone through SARS. If the government asks us to stay at home for weeks, we will not be surprised because we have done so in 2003. We have the country parks at the border of every district where fresh air can be enjoyed. Most will not panick because both the organizations and most adults have had a drill experience.
This 2019-nCov is the perfect carrier of biological warefare material. It spreads silently and relatively easily. Few countries will be spared at the end but eventually vaccines will keep the next generation safe.
There is no real escape plan because WuHan has an official population of 14 million and 500 million has left the city where thousands are outside the country.
1% infection rate means there are tens of patients running around "outside", on average every country will have a few, just like what happened in Hubei 2 months ago.
However, if a country can make sure that its residents live in a good condition, like everyone has their own room and they keep fresh air running free in their spacious living room, and people travel mainly with bikes or short distance travel on public vechicles, then perhaps the infection rate within families will be low enough to be contained
This must had been inspired by the standard sterilizing procedure called "autoclave", which uses pressurized steam of 121 degree Celsius to make pathogens inactive, if not dead.
There are several problems in this "kitchen version". Yes, steam of 100 degree Celsius may be enough to kill the notorious coronavirus. However, there are more things that have stuck to your used mask than that and 100 degree Celsius is not good enough to make it clean. Getting ill due to other pathogens is not really wise under such circumstances.
Secondly, steamers are not necessary pressurized. The layered fibres might not be in total contact with the hot steam so your used mask might still have hidden pathogens in it after being steamed.
Most importantly, your steamer is probably not airtight when at work. If any active corona virus got out with the steam your house is contaminated. WOW, you may have a clean mask but your house is now dirty.
Social media is a display board of creativity but not often good science. This is why you are made to learn so many things at school such that you do not get easily fazed.
Think about why animals have always been kept and raised as food, but not human beings. Human beings are known for not only its intelligence and creativity but all of those applied to non-compliance of anything set against their will.
This is why we have got education, politics, religions and arts, but not other animals. These things will not exist if we are compliant to Mother Nature.
The small community I lived in had always been "blue". They thought compliance to the regime is good to their survival. This is truthfully reflected in which newspaper(s) they have chosen to buy and what get(s) left out every day on the newspaper stands.
Apple Daily had never been so popular till these few days. People are clearly dissatisfied with the government to the core and they do not trust pro-government information source any more.
tag : 2019-nCov
Border control will not stop the virus from spreading because it is practically all over the place already. Border control should divide the possibly infected population into quarantine camp immediately instead. Going on a strike is something whose effectiveness depends on the (for example) government or employer (sometimes both are the same thing). So it is not about what you do (strike or not strike), but about the other side's decision.
However, not getting to work due to avoidance of crowded closed space should be an idea to be promoted. Your employer should not be happy to get an infected employee spreading potentially lethal virus around. If someone is not providing a ride in his/her disinfected private vehicle as an alternative you should stay at home for your colleague's safety.
An effective way of asking will be about "how to mitigate the negative effect" and "how to help the medics solve the problems".
The best way is try not to get ill. Wear masks and adhere to good hygiene practice. Avoid places with bad ventilation, and keep away from crowds. Keep your kids at home.
Doctors should refuse admission of non-local patients when the quarantine beds are full. International calls for mobile quarantine cubicles should be sought and open playgrounds should be prepared to be made into quarantine camps to prevent accidents like what happened in Amoy Gardens in 2003.
All people coming in/back to HK should stay at home for 10 at least 10 days. GPS tracking devices should be used. This will make tracking of the source of contamination easier.
tag : 2019-nCov
SCMP had announced a ground-breaking piece of information today:
The first case was actually caught on 1/12/2019, and that patient had no link to the noxious seafood market.
The story probably is like this: a researcher got contaminated from his work and got sent to the hospitals without having a chance to dispose of his research animals properly.
The animals, which looked healthy and did not have any obvious record on what they have been injected with (as expected if the virus was intended for biological warfare), got into the obnoxious food chain later in mid-Dec.
It has resulted in the seafood market incident where nearly 30 people got very sick.
However, this epidemic would have subided if it was JUST the seafood market. Officials should be able to trace most people back to direct and indirect contacts with this market and stopped the virus from spreading.
Hospitals and clinics typically have kids running around, rolling on the floor etc. Some kids got contaminated from their visits to these locations and most of them are asymptotic unfortunately. In Jan 2020, they managed to disperse the virus in the school just before traffic for the Lunar New Year starts. Most of the kids are asymptotic or had syndromes similar to flu or cold.
And then these hundreds of asymptotic kids are brought home or on trip, all over China, as well as many other countries, spreading the virus on the way.
So, the second explosion in case number is on the way, since average days for the syndrome to show is 10 days. We will be seeing an exponential growth in case number in the coming few days, especially in WuHan, where the official number of residents is 14 million.
And most of the dead victims will be cremated before having tested positive, and so the real numbers will never show on any official record.
Afterall, it is a city of 14 million. Even a contamination rate of 10% and death rate of 10% will result in 14 thousand corpses eventually.
tag : 2019-nCov
This explains why the government officials could not stop the epidemic in WuHan in time. Kids go to school, and in China, one class can have 60 students, cramped together for hours everyday in closed space.
If one asymptotic kid went to school, all the kids in the class would eventually catch the virus and spread it like wild fire to many families.
Most people would visit wet markets for items celebrating the Lunar New year. These sick parents will be taking paracetamol and going to wet markets thus contaminated these dirty, crowded places and created many transmission hotspots through the cities.
Then the children and their parents will visit many groups after schools, attending annual gathering dinners.
No, an epidemic is inevitable.
So, everyone, please keep your kids at home for at least 2 weeks, until the government can create enough anti-viral drugs against this unscrupulous pathogen.
If there exist a virus that could remove this kind of people, it would eventually create a crowd of weaklings who are not willing to work hard (coz they get sick afterwards) and are afraid to get into physical fight as they are extremely sensitive to getting hurt. They also don't response well to normal training schedule and so most of they will never train at all. They will be therefore easily manipulated, since they would like to earn big money just like any other people but they can't work hard nor train hard, and are very afraid of risks and therefore not will to resist. If the virus can effectively remove males in their 50s who have both money and power and the will to resist and make their family especially the kids who are used to an affluent lifestyle fall into poverty and therefore become extremely submissive, it would be too perfect for any non-democratic regime to have.
If the virus infects children but most of these kids are going to be contagious while asymptotic, such that their parents will get sick and probably die (especially their dads) just by taking care of their kids for long hours, it would be ideal to release such virus just before the long holidays start.
This would effectively place a huge number of children into the hands of the government, and total brainwash of the new generation will become practical, because the remaining adult population is naturally weak and yeilding.
Unluckily, the now rampaging 2019-nCov seems to be this "perfect virus"... it is hard not to suspect that this is the artificially created biological warfare weapon to remove roots of the resistant powers that many non-liberal powers in the world had dreamed for. And now the gene map has been uploaded onto the internet...?!
tag : 心理歷史學
It is expected that more cities will be under the same fate since people are posting their "successful sneak-out" on the internet, demonstrating how they are spreading the virus in popular tourist destinations.
What a year it had been. First the SHK cyling 50K event got cancelled because of "possibilities of disruption to the race and thus undermining safety of cyclists", and now the 2019-nCov will rampage the runners because obviously there will be people who are unaware of being infected without possibly deadly disease and running -- the starting point is always crowded for hours and it is known that people are more susceptible to pathogens when they finish a tiring workout.
Next, we will be seeing how quick the HK medics get their hands full and force the government to shut the ports down to prevent further influx of patients seeking treatment to arrive at Hong Kong.
Big cities are often equipped with hospital capacities in accordance to statistical rate of hospitalization. Anyone who has had basic statistical training will tell you that the bigger the city (with respect to population), the higher rate the medical system will break down because not only an epidemic is more probable, a variation of a several % of people in need of hospitalization entails several tens of thousands of increase in the demand for hospital beds.
No government will have that ready due to budget reason.
That means DOOM for those who get sick.
WuHan will be demonstrating this tragedy in the coming days. No one is to be blamed -- after all, except the Nordics, people enjoy living in the big cities, while governments are especially proud of having several mega-cities in their countries.
That is why I like Denmark. 500 years ago Danish government decided that it would be keeping the population of the biggest city under or around 2 million people in the long run.
Don't mock people who are highly academic but don't make big money -- they can save millions of lives by asserting what should be done for the good of the public -- needless to say, Danish people are book-loving and they don't get too proud of making "big money".
It might look good when you tell people you live in a big city, making "big money" while looking down on those who don't live in high-rise luxury apartments makes you feel great and proud of your achievements. It doesn't look good at all from the academic point of view. It is sad when a country is full of people who are not well educated, therefore believing in notions such as "making big money to have one's own good life".
tag : 心理歷史學
HKU Discovers Novel Drug Compounds and Associated Drug Target for Broad-spectrum Antiviral Therapy
10 Jan 2019
If treated early, that is.
Unluckily, since this finding is from last year, the drug has not yet been proven safe on human body and therefore unless people sign a form saying they won't sue the system even if they die due to the drug, they will not be going to use the drug; also, since the death rate of 2019-nCov should not be higher than 50% (or else it would have caught attention much earlier), due to ethical reasons, patients won't be able to 'try' this new drug even if they want, unless the scientists have singled out a subset which data says "such patients are very likelygoing to die by catching the virus" and that the patient has come to the hospital early enough before widespread damage was done to the body.
p.s. This epidemic might become the "test field" of this novel drug and accelerates its pace of getting out to the market.
For those who might not be familiar with the Chinese culture, Chinese don't have a habit of going to the doctor when they feel sick. Most people would try self-medication and if a novel pathogen is involved, it would spread undetected by the officials for weeks before it first killed the weakest patient and caught the attention of the alert mechanism and so very often, the medical system is unable to intercept at the best moment.
I am NOT writing to bash the medical system.
My calculations with models I have used for my psychohistory projects have confirmed with the scientists' report in the above link, unfortunately. However, I suspect that there are more twists to the future development of this epidemic. For example, some patients are asymptotic and they run around looking perfectly healthy but are actually spreading the virus everywhere they go. If there are a huge number of such "invisible" patients (e.g. kids) who gather and allow massive transmission, then it is possible that there will be millions of people around the world that get infected in the near future.
Oh and sad to say, most of my predictions do come true. When I was young, I have read "1984", I smirked and thought, "This is going to come true with much less effort and technology."
This is why I have kept writing for all these years. I don't care if my work does not carry LITERATURE value nor bring me cash and fame.
tag : 2019-nCov
No longer a slow reader
Well, it was said that teenagers nowdays don't read. It is a probable thesis because from the last IELTS I just took, I finished my reading 20 minutes before the time limit while others were just 60% through. Last time I took it, which was years ago, I did not have enough time to finish the questions.
So I guess in the coming global challenge of 2019-nCov, I should take up the role of explaining the newest research articles and implications of the findings on social media. The real experts are all fighting in the labs and in the hospitals, and no one would expect the top officials to read academic papers. Please bear with this change of topics and accept my apologies for those who have come to read my anime/manga reviews.