經濟瘟疫

注:本文是昨天那篇的重寫版。

基本上死亡率不過10%的都不算係「人口殺手」,所以今次這個搞到全世界政府和醫護「冇覺好瞓」的,最後會變成「經濟殺手」。因為這個病毒對人口密集的大城市這種經濟模式本身有致命的打撃,而疫情暫時看不到終點——高度傳染的病毒會不斷變種,因為不可能全世界都有疫苗打,而且從不保證免疫保護可以長期有效,如果最後發現實戰有效只有半年,就真的GG了。

昨為商人起家的Trump似乎已經發現這一點,所以比起救人,他更希望救經濟。

作為一個香港人,我會覺得中共應該對香港死心——這個病毒會令任何擁抱超高地價以及「X小時經濟圈」的經濟系統崩潰,而且不會救得回來。當你經濟救不回來,講什麼國族認同都是事倍功半。再跟小朋友說你主權有幾千年歷史,只會令他們長大後質疑「為什麼你搞幾千年都搞不好,別人來二百年就成功,之後又被你搞殘」……

因為高地價意味商家必須在短時間內在一個很小的場地招待大量人客,絕大部分學校醫院等公用空間也沒有能耐可給用家(包括從業者們)去「保持距離」。如果買東西和學習都足不出戶,大量大口將會沒有必要或者應該說是沒有動機留在居住環境擠迫的地方,人口將會大量流失(聽說公屋戶有不少內地有偌大的房子)——如果反正所有老師是線上教學,那倒不如要全世界最頂尖的學府最有權威的來教啦?然後這類高流轉的行業模式很多都是低門檻的生意(補習社門檻都低啊),結果有很多老闆都會離場,資金當然也留不住,就算變成國營再把成本質素壓下去,也不會見得能賺回從前能賺的錢。所以對於先施或者bossini之類的生意,誰接手誰「食屎」。

因為網上搞定的意思即是絕對的全球化競爭。就算係行山鞋,如果不是有實體店可以試鞋,我寧願只買Brooks(因為性價比高所以香港沒有代理)。完。波鞋街那些可以直接玩完了(其實我愛穿的跑鞋型號本身就只能在網上買到,實體店完全不進貨)。如果足不出戶又趕時間,我寧願吃麥片當一餐(只有北歐/英國那邊的好吃又便宜而且用的是營養強化了的麥),所有快餐店還有從業員直接「收皮」——像我這樣想和做的人只會越來越多。最近工作時已發現有很多新一代和我一樣會用麥片醫肚,只剩「中坑」會慣性吃快餐了。

老老實實這樣對我們有利——做零售、快餐的九成九住公屋,也就是令我們新一代有需要的上不到樓的「競爭者」,反正間間商場都是那幾間店,少九成都不會有問題。如果這些人在香港找不到工作(香港沒多少製造業)賺零用錢,他們為了孩子着想大概也只能回老家了吧。話說丹麥用政策直接製造這個效果,香港人大概也要像抗疫那樣「自已救自己」吧。

所以由現在至2045,我覺得大城市尤其是香港的商用地價和私樓租金會跌起碼三成,無業率(不同可以造數的失業率)會大升數倍,人均消費力大減,所以資金亦會少幾成。現在才開始長炒大城市樓的人(以及接其貸款生意的銀行),會係下一場「風暴」的輸家。

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

tag : covid-19

The Plague

Trump is well-known for his uncensored tweets which are bad for science and fact-based discussions but good for sentimental interactions.

Yesterday he tweeted, "...the World was hit by the Plague from China. 100 Trade Deals wouldn't make up the difference -- and all those innocent lives lost!" https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1260578860992737285

Scientific evidence has come up and revealed that half of the patients were infected by those who are yet to show syndromes while 90% of those infected never reached out for medical attention, for reasons not yet identified.

This is leading to the unfortunate fact that the vaccine, if there is one, will only be protecting the privileged -- if there are so many patients running around undetected, a complete screening of the population will be unaffordable to most parts of the world, resulting in a barricade of heavily stricken COVID-19 patients DDOSing the hospital systems until each and every one is down.

If you cannot understand the logic behind the last paragraph, then probably you don't know that screening is only effective if a small group of "at risk" people can be identified. For some common cancers, it would be those aged around 50-65 -- they are still valuable assets to their families and the society and if there are cheap tests that can be done on them, a lot of families will be saved and the cost of running the society is lowered.

For quite some parts of the world, people live and work in an extremely crowded environment and travel around for work and study extensively, thus there is no effective definition of "high-risk" group. These parts of the world would suffer heavily since vaccination might be expensive enough such that not everyone could afford it, and if they people are not wealthy enough to be taxed substantially, the hospital system would not be able to take the extra load soon -- dealing with the COVID-19 patients on their first attack is not the only extra load. Recovered patients might need quite a lot of follow-ups and no report has said that our immune response (no matter to the virus or vaccine) will give us permanent protection.

For HK people, it should be well noted that there is no way we can live like the Danish citizens coz we just have no readily habitable land, even if all the 'brown areas' are released. We will all need the vaccines eventually and we will not be able to get it any time soon. Our hospital system will be on full load for several years and you will see how our precious medical system will break down, followed by the mainstream education system, and then the economic structure will not hold anymore.

I am not very optimistic about how HK will come out of this challenge. Our obesity rate is around 40%, and most of the population is above 40 years old. This virus is just a terminator for big cities where the land price is high -- often due to supply being scarce so no financial trick could solve the problem quickly. Most shops(including private schools) profit by high turnovers achieved with crowding their customers and so many business models stemmed from this paradigm will take a great hit since there is no alternative way to do things.

This is a plague that KILLS a lot of the "ways of living" as we are used to as city dwellers. The proportion of the population killed will not be that significant at the end since countries will rather kill businesses rather than people, compared to the last plagues.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : covid-19

近況報告

1. 之前因為車程太飄忽傷了胃,加上鄰居抽煙的惡習又回來了(報復性食煙?之前醫生警告煙民中了招的話死得特別多大家都怕了很明顯抽少了)本星期有兩天都在家裡發作倒地合共近五小時,去到昨天大概各種的中毒(三手煙現在已證實很毒的說)終於瀉了一整天,到現在仍然是只要一專心就會胃痛,幸好交通開始回復正常,所以最近的行程沒有太大的意外,可以一天「食足三餐」兼捱到回家還有心機自己搞食療,終於回復狀態了。

2. 繼續留意生果報初出報導、修正/跟進版以及紙本的分別。老實說如果你問我想要訂哪份,我真的會很猶豫。讀紙本的時候專注力是不一樣的(現在我心裡的那個理論應該夠寫認知科學的PHD論文……),因為紙版你會同時見到整篇文有多長、比對其他文有多長,然後想想你有多少時間,再分配給重要和看起來營養高的文章,不像網路版那樣要點來點去,很容易被標題黨欺騙感情而且你不能事先知道你要投資多少時間才能讀畢一篇文,嚴重影響對報紙的觀感和閱讀精力的效率,要人付錢當然更難。每個媒體都不乏短話長說騙稿費的文章,而因為曾幾何時是個技術上的讀障所以我很討厭中這種伏,因此對紙版和電子版的分別特別敏感。

說起來別的報紙的網上版我見過會寫出一篇文章有多長(用預計閱讀時間來標示),我覺得是德政。如果網上版每篇文可以像臉書那樣由資深讀者(尤其是公共知識分子)評分之類,或者免費版每篇文都能看但有一定的時限(例如30秒),那就更能提高網上閱報的效率。

我是那種非常珍惜紙版報的傢伙,因為網上大數據絕對可以出賣身分,如果要煽動個別對象,真的是比臉書更有效(因為有權威性而且你未必知道你的版本和別人有什麼分別<-就算是排版差異,都會有影響)。

所以如果我有錢可以隨意「課金」,我絕對是寧願買紙版。買東西也一樣。除非是有信心的供應商,我寧願去實體店見到性價比高的實物才買,衣服更是不見實體絕對不會買。布料不摸過,就算同樣是棉,品質都可以差很遠的說,車工每件有出入更不用提。<-幾近只買耐用品的傢伙 <-一件比賽送的跑衣也穿足十年才丟

3. 上月因為工作正常化但車程暴增而運動量減少了很多……不少肌肉明顯變回脂肪……慘。

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 網版v.s.紙版

現實裡的少年漫老梗

果然是《通靈王》的玩法……已經不是個別派系的意識型態之爭,而是所有「概念」和「場地」都可以用來打,不同的思念實體化成為各種形態具殺傷力的力量,各方大戰連場最後看看花落誰家……

那邊廂有個上了岸早已到了「隨時被神召回」年紀的諾獎得主出來說是人工合成的病毒在大殺四方,這邊廂有一班不曾「打破玻璃」的人們因為未經批准聚集了人們為公義發聲就被捕。

用少年漫畫的分鏡語言,畫面就是一方抓好了對方會關心的對象的人質,而另一方就是大叫:「你這個壞蛋給我乖乖接一招!」

雖然少年漫畫很多時候都充滿荒唐的畫面,不過背後的邏輯真的很現實。

話說我之前不是說過如果這場病毒大戰(我不想叫這病毒任何一個單一名字,因為以當今的基因編輯技術,任何個生化設備較先進的國家拿到了樣本之後都可以動手改,而改完之後是不是還要叫同一個名,是一個很嚴肅的問題)的起因是有一隻高毒性的品種「不小心」漏出去,那麼最合理的「執拾」方法就是把低毒性而有更高傳染性的版本故意放出,把高風險的本地人群先用低毒性的版本感染一次,那就可以做到針對性的「群體免疫」。

然後最近研究爆發初期的基因差異的結果符合了這個說法,香港和東南亞先爆的品種似乎是毒性低的。

如果當初的判斷是無法「斷鏈」,無論做什麼都會最後全世界大爆發,只差是一個月後還是一年後,最正常的做法就是化危機為機會——把自家的影響減到最低,令對家損失比自己更大,輸少當贏。最簡單的做法就是鼓勵第一波高毒性的高風險人群通通逃到對家然後再自封然後散毒(低殺傷的)結果流出好慘的畫面(注:幾百人排醫院擠整晚=能站一整晚的都不是重病;醫護做到崩掉的時後整體死亡率上升是必然,因為本來有人急救的都沒人手處理,屍體暴增是正常的,但未必全是病毒所為)。

當然這些連我也不用花時間都能想得出的東西,任何一方也不會想不到,但吹水不能當證據,尤其中國是世界工廠的確是事實,所有傳統的懲罰制裁最後都會變成由本來已經血汗的人民以更血汗的人生去承擔,甚至反彈回來,所以真正的好戲在後頭——中國的弱項的確是把創意發展最後做出完成度高的成品——全世界的受害國把疫情收拾好之後發揮創意,人類歷史發展說不定會大大改寫。

而那一定是中國不會預見到的,因為中國文化的重點就是「五千年傳統」(=本質沒有突破過)。

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : covid-19

Proof of Democracy

It is well known that the older generations were not educated on the topic of democracy, and most of them just define democracy as something which vaguely resembles some aspects of democratic practices.

One of the recurrent scenarios has been framing "giving you a choice" as sufficient proof of practicing democractic management.

As children, we are all familiar with how vile characters blackmail the protagonists in cartoons, "What would you give up? Your money or your life?"

Well, does that count as a choice? Are the bandits "democratic"? Even young children could understand who are the bad guys without adults explaining to them.

Democracy isn't just giving people choices. It is the spirit which makes one abstain from abusing power by stopping people from pointing out problems in the system which would give those in power big trouble or embarrassment, such that there is a temptation to cull the disagreeable voice.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

傳了四個月

今天終於看到了一直想看的某冠狀病毒群組的初步基因排序變異距離分析。

老老實實吹水陰謀論說多過一天真的很無謂。以你幾百萬患者加上四個月做基數,當中看看基因每次突變可以改到多少,再看看那幾個百分點的變化大概要花多久才能變到從蝙蝠到「人傳人(以及貓傳貓)」。

以今回(八日出的)的初步論文的數據以本人的外行推算,那種幅度應該是「幾千萬加上最少半年」,或者「幾萬個體花數年」。

現在大家已經公認了某懷疑源頭在兩年前左右正在「玩蝙蝠」。「幾萬個體花數年」的話絕非不可能——現代養蠱不是笑話。

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : covid-19

Spoilt the party and please don't ruin my cake

There are too much discussions around the infamous "#23" so that I need to point out, although I am not a professional legal personnel, that HK doesn't need #23 at all.

First, there are existing laws which can be used to curb physical activities that threatens the sovereign of CCP of mainland China.

CCP has a big army if you compared it to the number of people in HK who have access to any weapon that can be used in military combat.

There is NO way HK can threaten CCP through physical siege. If China is concerned with how HK is threatening its rule, then it must be through financial or political, perhaps information-wise influence.

It is unfortunate that CCP needs HK as a gatekeeper for capital flow but for HK to fulfill this role, it needs free information flow, democracy and a healthy legal system. I sympathize with CCP which considers the latter trio a threat to its sovereign.

HK doesn't need #23. To be honest, CCP just needs to change the way it is ruling China or else everything will become a deadlock.Scientifically speaking CCP consists of human beings that are found in all parts of the world and therefore they are capable of making wise decisions -- or else, the aftermaths of COVID-19 will force CCP to forfeit its ruling rights eventually: China took 10 years to fend of "little Japan". Guess what would happen if the whole world is against it.

HK, with #23 or not, is not really the cause behind what is going to happen. With all the "physical damage" by the "rioters", restaurants and retailers are ready to point out that they are suffering many times more due to COVID-19 and everybody on Earth knows COVID-19 has nothing to do with "HK rioters". This is absolutely the WRONG time to raise the subject of #23 again.

It is like spoiling the whole party yourself with everyone looking at you and then you started pointing your finger at your kid saying "you are not going to ruin my cake".

This is just lame.

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

tag : 23

Sick Buildings

I have always known very clearly when my neighbours are smoking, including those who lived on the floor below mine.

So I am 100% sure that COVID-19 can fly from your neighbours, both sideways and upwards. Cross your fingers and wish yourself luck that the wind is not blowing the wrong way.

I have to say that a long list of popular building designs WILL prove to be effective in transmitting COVID-19, and I am quite sure that the professionals will NOT admit it until the last moment.

Not until they have sold most of their properties.

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

tag : covid-19

又烏鴉嘴

……大概半個月之前說我用模擬模型計算過,認為有兩個版本的致病原,而一開始在武漢爆的比較毒(重症多死亡率高),然後之後有第二種相信是被刻意放出來的「煙幕」,今天北京大學專家新出的論文是證實被我說中了。收到風放工即開始看那篇論文的說。

只希望真的如中方所言那樣,重症/死亡多是老人和長期病患,而不是像AIDS那樣,只是發病時間可以差超多而已。畢竟我並不認為李文亮是老人或長期病患。

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

Conspiracy theory hopefully?(2/2)

COVID19 was supposedly only harmful to the weak and the old, so the impact on the society is acceptable. Though, due to Asian culture, where people are not encouraged to train up and resources are often spent on luxury instead of supporting EVERYONE to stay strong, unfortunately the "weak" extends to a huge proportion of the population and that was what went awfully wrong. When the concentration of a pathogen is high due to a great density of patients, immune system will not be effective at putting away the danger.

This will explain the unbelievably long window variation, low detection rate in China (but not Singapore), cases of "repeated" infections, while a significant proportion of the patients had negative test results while having "typical" syndromes plus the reluctance for outsiders to gain first-hand sample of the virus.

US is smart when it used robots to handle the so-called COVID19 patients. They knew something much more serious was happening there. Anyone would have recognized the similarities to EBOLA and who knows what is out there? The Wuhan team has been infamous since several years ago its research on making corona virus on animals to become viable on human hosts been banned by the US. Then we have the P4 and the team was now back to WuHan. People cannot be condemned to have suspect what have happened there.

If some strain corona virus can be manipulated to be able to infect the human body, why can't EBOLA be tuned down in the same way?

It is not the tests that are defective or the window could be very long/repeated infection possible. The "heavy syndromes" were created by another pathogen and the patients contract COVID19(which is like a serious flu) earlier or later. SARS was exactly like that -- the patients who died were found to have been infected by another non-lethal pathogen (found by HKU team) not long before they contract the corona virus that induced SARS.

Remember even EBOLA doesn't have a 100% death rate. It is around 50% only. No vaccines, no effective drugs yet. Luckily it doesn't transmit by air, so it is not the end of the world yet. A weakened EBOLA that doesn't explode in your face (which would kill anyone without high-grade protective clothing) and has a visible rash (so you could just get away seeing one) but only kill those who are in close contact with the patient while anyone who carries the pathogen can be "grounded" by a mild and easy-to-spread virus and therefore removed from the population is an ideal biochemical weapon combo indeed.

I do hope that this turns out to be another direction of conspiracy theory that is completely fictitious. I won't spend time writing conspiracy theories if I think the possibility is very low. I would rather spend the time writing some science fiction that would inspire people to create a better future.

p.s. No Chinese synopsis will be available since it is impossible to compress the logic without stating the arguments -- it is irresponsible just to talk about the deductions/conclusions. Also, this is intended for mature Chinese readers since those who can read comfortably in English tend to be highly literal and are less prone to panicking.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : covid-19

自我介紹

溫的若

Author:溫的若
人類有很多不同的屬性,有一兩種偏離正常(就當是十分之一吧)是很平常的。假設人有5種互相沒有關係的屬性,五個數值都是「正常」的機會只有一半左右。
但是如果五個數值之中,同時有三種是「不正常」的,那麼100人之中,就只有不到一人,堪稱「異界人」了。

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