第三次世界大戰開始

基本戰向已定——到底最後哪種生活模式會成為世界主流呢?國界甚至語言和宗教都已經不是重點了。作為香港人,最近兩年都開始明白「生活在哪(國界定義)」已不是重點,而是「生活在怎麼樣的世界」才是最重要的。

大家會選擇把政府當成神那樣來尊敬、逆來順受自我安慰,願意接受不能理解的介入,還是每個人都有能有志可以擔起平衝各方利益的決策,為自己作出的選擇付上責任(俗稱「自由、真民主」)?

天主教一向都非常努力推廣前者的價值觀,而我近年走訪香港的天主教的活動,發現積極參與的年青人數目幾近是零,所以我不需要看民調結果都知道現實是什麼一回事。因此梵諦岡和中共走在一起,我不很意外。

美心太子女(嬸)說的「放棄年輕人」論,我覺我能夠腦補出她的本意。中共已明確指示香港不可以跑後者的路線,所以香港的年輕人既不願意接受前者的安排,也就只能遠走高飛或者以抗爭為名自殺為實的和老一輩玩攬炒。「收成期」的那班很不高興是可預見的結果。

本來不合則分可以保證世界和平,但問題是主動想要留下來的不是手中有錢想要別人服侍,就是沒有能力或者性格缺乏擔當的人(或者同時是兩者)。這樣的經濟系統根本就不能不像某南美國家那樣慘崩。香港要是這樣崩,真的對大部分國家都沒有好處。

各國政府都不是傻的,所以這裡有個天大的死結,一定要有巨大的設定轉變才可以解決。

例如有某個病毒把那些低生產潛力的都踢走(當然會錯殺良民,一如的確有些人對疫苗有嚴重不良反應),但統計上成功。美國的醫療數據已說明老人院死亡率係正常十倍,而基層工作者也明顯中招率高很多——印度發現多達四成患者完全沒事趴趴走,只有不夠五分一會發燒。

如果死剩少量「收成期」,那不用留很多人力就已經夠服侍他們——總有人沒有外語天分(包括普通話),今生不會幻想移民。那麼其他人就可以走了。土地留給仍在的那一群,然後因為人少錢多,人工不只可以提升,樓價自然因為用家少租金撐不住最後只能下調,民生問題在可見將來就能自然解決,怒濤中的人工島也就不必起了。能走二百萬(先進民主國家因為COVID19失去的人口應該到最後埋單每個平均都不見幾十萬,所以如果香港人願意去「填坑」支持一下樓價,就能各取所需了)其實最好不過。

所以港政府係真正的「加速師」之說塵囂至上,而民建聯等建制派故意搞大型無口罩的互噴口水聚會,動機「可圈可點」。

等香港這個死結解開,自然就會開打。象徵式的打,打出牙齒印(例如南海無人島被轟)之後就會「絕交」。不同體系的經濟系統互相交流到最後雙方都會崩潰。All for one和one for all的市場平衡點根本就不同。

所以Pompeo說得好,每個國家都要看看自己該站哪裡。大家企好了,然後就會開局了。

我們這些香港薯民的出走,只是象徵開局的炮彈。

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

tag : 心理歷史學

散水!

圈子裡開始有人移民了。不是「說」而是做了。為什麼?因為政府對民生問題不作為。

事實上慈雲山爆疫有社區失控之勢,因為找不到感染源頭的比例不小,但所有人都注意到中心點是慈雲山中心。

行山友無一不熟悉慈雲山中心——我是跑了那麼多次的沙慈古道,進去該商場的數目十隻手指數得完。

原因?這商場的冷氣很髒,我每次留超過半小時就會想嘔。很多老人家會坐在那裡乘涼(因為在家開冷氣要錢),然後難免見到老友就會扯高聲量吹水(因為老人家耳朵不好)。洗手間更是髒,去過一次之後不會再去。

最後就是科學的風水問題:巴士總站的髒風總是被商場「吸盡精華」。

基本上有些很根本的民生問題一向都存在,然後政府沒有作為。所以星火一燎,就爆炸了。這樣的政治格局不改,有能力的都會逃跑。

「廢老唔戴罩」只是問題的一角。「劏房」很危險大家都知道,所以有能力逃跑的都會暫住親友家(劏房環境差,沒人會留戀啦),另外大部分人都會有危機感,所以反而不是「最危險的」。

想不久之前有人說「宜昌以下,跑」,現在Twitter上的超大型水浸片越來越多,全世界都知道中國人的命運就是要懂逃亡。大山大河意味政府不會有能力擋廿年一遇的大洪水,不懂跑死守家園的就要有心理準備每代清零一次。

半年甚至三個月就要打一次的疫苗不會人人有份,所以到最後誰能保持社交距離誰就有經濟優勢。

所以我要對自稱「經濟動物」的香港人說:散水!

p.s. 約五百年前丹麥首都都「散水」了一次,最後人口跑了一半,才能保住繁榮穩定至今。丹麥傳統一向珍惜言論自由(不是我說的),所以「散水」之必要性和民主之類的政見分歧其實沒有關係,純粹就是物理需要。

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

tag : covid-19

近況報告

之前工作量正常了一個月,但車程卻仍然沒回復正常(昨天卡了在路上結果有一程花了近兩小時),結果經常累到回家直接睡在地板上,而且很多新聞都沒讀到了,更別說打格文。

看來之後工作量會長期大減,先加操跑山,鍛鍊好體能再從長計議。

香港的經濟格局一直都在變化,從前樓市如黃金的原因是人口不斷暴升,成為了推動經濟的硬動力,到了人口過多,樓市硬性保值如黃金,結果可以有本錢學玩金融;但去到COVID-19世代,這病毒一下就把這玩法從人類歷史上刪除了。只能捱三個月的抗體免疫力注定無論有沒有疫苗,人口分散居住才是安全的社會運作模式。

人口不會再怎麼升的話,樓價升跌只剩下人的質素會不會升。

所以政府投入多少資源在普及教育上,以及工作政策及傳統文化有多支持人們接受不斷學習好技能以及育兒,就成為了樓市保值的指標。

這樣看來丹麥又繼續贏,而香港將會輸到貼地(你看看香港多少人自豪自己不學無術但賺到錢,而香港老闆愛的無非是香港人願意捱超長工時,而非資歷)。

你問我為什麼總是拿丹麥來比?因為都是人口幾百萬的「相對旁區是一個小小的經濟文化區」。

大國因為地廣人多,奇人怪地供應不絕,整個經濟體依賴的關鍵因素就不同了。要是用來和香港比不同經濟民生政策的效果,就不科學了。

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

Bad ventilation at fault?

There are tens of COVID-19 cases in the Tsz Wan Shan district of which the source of infection cannot be determined.

As a hiker who occasionally passes through this public-housing area, I couldn't help noticing how some of the main indoor passages were badly ventilated. These spaces were meant to be used by the elderly and are equipped with escalators for example, to tackle with the hilly presentation of the settlement.

Although these air-conditioning systems should have some disinfecting power, the low flow rate would make any infected passerby a potent source of infection, especially many would stand and chat or take a rest in such spaces.

Edit at 15/7: Recent study by HKU:
https://news.mingpao.com/ins/%e6%b8%af%e8%81%9e/article/20200715/s00001/1594789695939

Low airflow (<1L/s/person) at 1.5m apart is the same as zero distance contact

題目 : 醫學 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : COVID-19

Why Trump is a merchant at the core

Dear Mr. Anthony Fauci,

Please allow me to address you like this. As a fellow scientist, I would like to inform you why your precious President Trump is telling his people things which are not really scientifically valid.

Merchants have a habit of throwing away suppliers and customers they consider not profitable from, and that is to tell them things that would make them suffer a loss, or to provide non-prime services and goods to make sure they are not coming back.

If they are running a restaurant, they would give these undesirable customers a bad place to sit in, worse food and less service. If it is a supplier, they would give them investment tips that would make they broke (in worst scenario), for example.

US is swarmed by a migrant and insufficiently competitive population the government can no longer provide for adequately. If equality and fair competition is the basis of the US economy, Trump would definitely make use of the COVID-19 to "shave these people off".

Any wise man would trust a healthcare professional more than a merchant in the case of surviving a pandemic. US has freedom of speech so medical professionals are to be trusted compared to merchants in such topics.

For the US, there are just too many people who don't believe in science and the professionals. These people are UNDERMINING the economy in the long run, and forging grounds for foreign control based on conspiracies and biased information. If these people can be given a hard lesson, this is the only chance.

COVID-19 is not really a lethal weapon, and the US is large enough for people to spread out, and so the epidemic will not simultaneously boom in all cities. Next time, the culprit might be much more powerful and it would be too late, since those people who don't trust the authority will still not obey the hygiene rules nor take any vaccine. This is now the chance to educate people what NOT to trust. Having some elderly and sick people die in batches will also certainly improve the budget in the long run.

I understand that this goes WAY BEYOND what a scientist can do. It is exactly because Trump has the perfect excuse of saying scientifically wrong things, and the cold gut of a great(in the aspect of making profit) merchant, he is now doing what only he can do -- ordering unwise people to follow stupid instructions.

Please teach the people who to trust next time after the pandemic is over, and let the US people learn their hard lesson now. If they are given the freedom of speech, they should also learn how to be wise and what to trust. It is lucky that COVID-19 is not really lethal for most. All those painful losses of lives will prove to be worthy if people learn the lesson well. There are just SO many people who have lost their trust in science over the years where companies conducted biased researches and undermine public trust.

People did not suddenly lose trust in science. US is never a part of heaven, and what you are seeing is not only the fruit of Trump's "misconduct".

Democracy also entails the responsibility to make wise decisions, thus be educated on scientific issues (even if knowing them won't make you earn more money) and take responsibility oneself for trusting the wrong person. Democracy is never meant to be a cheap game of "follow the great-looking and easy-going leader" nor an easy solution for hard problems.

Hopefully, the US' pandemic tragedy will teach all the people in the world a hard lesson on freedom of speech, democracy and science.

Yours sincerely,
A HK resident who have been reading the US news

題目 : 醫學 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

Extreme weather doesn't discriminate

A deep shudder went down my spine as earlier there were forum accounts which reacted to the Yangtze River flood as if extreme weather would only affect developing countries. Japan is now the next victim. Many other countries will soon join them, just be reminded that you might not be informed if you only get your news from the local channels.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 is now becoming more and more ready to be air-borne. Soon it will make into the news (I read the academic papers first-handed so I am often weeks quicker than the news) though I wonder how many would dare to make an honest report (edit: turns out to be 200+) to the as-usual-the-last-to-know WHO. Disasters brought by extreme weather will prove controlling the pandemic more and more difficult as people run around for their lives while more and more resources become increasingly limited, in addition to the resulting dirty mess which is an established ground for another epidemic.

This is alarming since cities are going to be unsafe when things go really wrong. How can you feed a large number of people when more and more of them are sick and contagious? The COVID-19 has proven to be more infectious in the metropolitan setting (not surprising, huh).

When the supply chain goes down and won't be recovering anytime soon, how are the city dwellers going to grow enough vegetables (which cannot be stored like the grains) in their home to stay healthy? The epidemic won't last very long compared to how long, say, rice or meat, can be stored but certainly much longer than how long fresh vegetables can be kept with the essential nutritional elements.

Hong Kong, with a population of nearly 8 million, will not get itself out of such contingency unless 3 million of us leave and disperse around the world. Dying together solves none of our problems and are only creating sound reasons for international military involvement, which would easily result in WWIII. I advise those capable of surviving elsewhere leave in an orderly manner at their first chance.

I am NOT joking or being sarcastic. If people from a developed region die in hordes without committing any substantial violence, this is the greatest breach of any common sense version of national security.

There are just too many things that is above politics when it comes to survival tactics during catastrophe.

I will repeat: extreme weather doesn't discriminate.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : Survival

The curtain is drawn

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What you will not know(2/2)

Also, in the areas where people are not spending enough money to keep the malls profiting and working hard enough to keep the office buildings rented so there is money to keep the air-conditioning on high power and make sure the air circulation is disinfected, they will have repeated cases and the community will be "home-ridden", and soon people will be moving out at their first chance.

This is good news for the governments -- cities should be down-sized if they are not viable. What is better than being able to avoid making the hard decision and just let the virus do its job?

Also, since the anitbodies will only last for several months, only critical personnel such as the medics will be given the vaccine, and the general public would have to rely on the active actions of the immune system -- those who have a good life will stay immuned and those who are not will be killed after repeated infections.

The governments that have had their hands full of problems would be very happy to see those who are living a hard life dead sooner -- unhappy citizens are harder to govern and require much more government resources to please.

What you will not know is that every country in the world, under every political system, the government will come to the same conclusion and that is to let the soon-to-be-airborne version of COVID-19 run free.

Yes I would call it COVID-20, the virus that is secretly let to run free (but what other choices do you have? If it is airborne then masks are not really effective).

題目 : 熱門新聞 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

tag : 心理歷史學

The Damn Dams Diversion

People have been talking about big dams collapsing bringing disastrous floods to the cities lying beside the Yangtze River on the major forums.

I believe it to be a failed propaganda to drive people's attention away from the coming National Security Law, and to distribute ideas that would divide people up. I have been told to watch videos where the speaker used the "collapsing dam" to lure viewers to listen to his ranting of how victims are to be blamed and an OOT lecture on the negative parts of human nature which is taught in "Introduction to Psychology", which I guess only 10% of the population has taken (no I am not going to give the video more views so no links will be given). The end result is that people would point their fingers at the victims and also make the privileged people say ugly things and think only about themselves when the crowd is at risk -- this is war-making 101.

No you are not going to trick me and I am writing this article as a warning.

Yes someone is DEFINITELY trying to wage antagonism within HK, and within China.

If lots of people reply "hell ya die you Chinese" then the CCP would say "look these people are totally worthy of being subjugated". If people stay calm and united, this would be our chance to prove to the world that China is over-reacting and totally in the wrong direction because they just don't understand how to deal with angry educated youth and a family & career-oriented population which is concerned over how the government wasted a lot of resources on the CCP's order rather than supporting local productivity.

p.s. Why would a dam collapse suddenly if water is allowed to flow through? The dams have been there holding water for quite some time already. I would worry over major earthquakes rather than extra water flow, coz the former is definitely less predictable.

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

On Research Validity

I seldom read from "Economist" because I don't like the overall research quality there. Recently a graph like this (you don't have to subscribe to see) caught my attention from a discussion (which I didn't participate in) in one of the famous social forums:

Democracies-contain-epidemics-most-effectively

As everyone can see the height with which both sets of the dots spread, it is not VERY fair to use linear regression to conclude -- years ago a research says boys are better at science and maths than girls with similar data distribution, where variation is bigger than the difference between the groups. Although the validity of the claim was criticized, damage was done.

It would have been much more honest if the two sets of data were plotted with red and green to show the widespread overlapping, instead of pale blue and pale violet(?).

When there are more resources (aka high GDP per person), a country can act with more options when given against a challenge, and democracy is often needed to sort out the differences in people's opinion. However, it is a matter of choice what system to use. The graph clearly shows the huge difference in outcomes for rich and poor countries under the threat of different epidemics.

However, it should be noted that since the TYPES of diseases that break out in different living conditions will be different, comparison is not really fair too.

Also, 95% confidence is considered weak in the hard sciences... my guess is that with a 99.5% confidence, there will be no significant difference but since epidemics are not THAT often, insufficient data points justify the lower confidence level used,

The last thing I would like to comment on is the theory of "poor country does not see benefits by adopting democratic system in face of epidemics). To my knowledge the article doesn't address this issue (though I don't have a subscription so I cannot be sure, I inferred this from the discussion).

According to this graph, scientifically significant differences in the death rate start at around $3K-4K GDP per person at purchasing-power parity at 2020, and disappear at around $30K-40K... I assume all these data be in USD. If epidemics represent the sort of typical case where a government and its people need to make quick decisions and powerful actions to overcome the challenge, this research actually hints at "a narrow window" during which people can clearly decide that democracy is better,

If the system of a country can only be changed drastically without conflict when 99% of the people give consent to (in HK, 1% of dissent already means nearly 80K people in a single city, enough to start a large scale "riot"), Hong Kong has definitely "passed" the point where consensus stemmed from objectivity can be attained -- our PPP in 2018 is well over 60K.

Well, strange that my conclusion and the Economist's conclusion(pro-democratic) is different.

If you ask me to resolve the political dissent in Hong Kong, I would suggest people to acknowledge the fact that supporters of democracy would generally have an income, when changed to PPP, falling between 3K to 30K USD, while the average GDP PPP in HK be something around (at least) double of that.

Yes, the chasm that has widened in Hong Kong over the years smells like it is more than about "political" dissent or delusions that can be "brainwashed" away. My suggestion would be dividing the people into two systems -- the poorer ones might have the democracy they deserve, while the richest should just submit themselves to something else -- yes it is still one country two systems, just that the rich ones should bow down to another power, which is generally already so in the first place.

Scientific evidence sugggests the poorer people in Hong Kong would benefit from a truly democratic government. So what would the rich and powerful say about this? Support the poor (PPP <35K) to leave China since CCP will not allow this choice? Like how Denmark supported the immigrants who did not successfully become a productive member of the Danish society to get back to their origin country by giving them a bunch of cash?

p.s. Since China still has more than 600 million still earning 3K PPP or less per year, this research actually supports that China is not ready for democracy yet.

p.s.s. I have always enjoyed seeing different things from the same research than the paper's author claims.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

自我介紹

溫的若

Author:溫的若
人類有很多不同的屬性,有一兩種偏離正常(就當是十分之一吧)是很平常的。假設人有5種互相沒有關係的屬性,五個數值都是「正常」的機會只有一半左右。
但是如果五個數值之中,同時有三種是「不正常」的,那麼100人之中,就只有不到一人,堪稱「異界人」了。

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