Hong Kong, the weirdest place

Most people who have moved to other parts of the world had intensely felt that Hong Kong is really a special place.

I am born with a keen eye. I have been to other parts of the world and investigated more about this "phenomenon".

I have come to the conclusion that Hong Kong has a HIGH concentration of "abnormal" human beings.

The British leaders had noted that the generation of refugees were full of gifted people. The education system and economic dynamics were fine-tuned to bring their potential out. In the recent years, the CCP had shipped a huge group of people with special needs (evidence coming from those providing the professional services needed by these immigrants) after the handover.

Thus, Hong Kong is full of ABNORMAL people. It is normal that no known crowd-control that any school on earth could teach will work as expected on Hong Kong people. This is unfortunately making the CCP very angry and fussed.

Emergency crowd control is basically done by scaring people. But if people are either too tough to be manipulated or too hysterical to move as instructed, nothing good would follow. Those doing crowd control are trying to get their jobs done so if they can't find a way to complete their set tasks and the managing power is not yielding, those on the front lines are not going to be emotionally stable for long and tactics, if there is any, falls apart.

Worse, it is very hard to get HK people to point their fingers at each other to achieve certain political goal -- if people are largely abnormal(in very different ways) from the start, human nature states that they will be pointing their fingers at each other since a very young age. The majority simply wouldn't feel any difference and the response would be minimal. If they have been offending each other for 100 times already, what new response would you get if you poke them for the 101st time? Not much. If you try hard to get something more, everyone would see what you are up to.

To put it simply, HK people have a huge biodiversity so as a crowd, only a system that entails democracy and freedom can work out "as intended".

p.s. In a way, we should thank the CCP of shipping all the "special need" people to HK, because, well, gifted people are highly susceptible to careful manipulation because their behavior are often highly predictable (if you have the same degree of intelligence to see through their response pattern, that is) since they don't do "wrong stuffs" and so accidentally break "the plan" like normal ones often do on a whim.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

New group of developmentally challenged?

I think soon there will be a revolution in the global education market.

After all these years of continuous studying and teaching, I think students can be divided by two seperate types:

1. Observation type
They can learn just by observing others demonstrating a skill, or, reading instructions and examples.
They don't really need a lot of real-time following up to get them motivated or invest concentration into what they are to study.

2. Interactive type
They need strong social cues to initiate the process of learning, and this is often done by real-time interactions with tactile and emotional play. Their concentration can only be kept by constructively building the flow of instructions.

Online teaching is good with type 1 students and type 2 often fails miserably. Traditional big class lecture-based teaching is basically type 1 so it is to be predicted that a lot of these educational institutions are going to face huge revolutions in how they run, even with the COVID-19 gone.

It is the type 2 students that are of concern. They will start to exhibit typical behaviors associated to students with the developmental challenges.

Bascially speaking, most departments in the universities will gradually switch to research-based ones since current technology will enable the whole world to enroll in the best online teaching providers, and people will ask for it.

I can't see why we all shouldn't be instructed by better lecturers. It is too sad that college students often skip classes because they don't find it rewarding enough.

Since economically education will soon favor type 1 students, cultures that build on strong social interactions will soon find the highly-educated members distancing themselves from them since economically this will become less and less sustainable.

I see learning disorders or developmental challenges as modes of learning that deviate from economical models of teaching. As the matching supply dwindles due to economic return becoming more and more unsustainable, less grew up being able to support such modes of learning, finally the ones with that demand become those with "special needs" and few could cater for their prefered methods of learning.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

[science for noobs]How does they screen for COVID-19? (parable ver.)

Why are there so many complaints about "indicators" (China made plus US made, famous brand too) missing COVID-19 positive samples?
I am trying to explain it with a parable without all the scientific terms.

To put it in the simplest words, as Jesus loved doing with parables, the quick test consists of three steps: (the slow one is accurate because it uses a different method, so the quick test can only be used for screening, not diagnosis)

1. Multiplication
What we are looking for is like finding a tiny clip in a library. In order to be able to make it visible from the CCTV (yes you are not allowed to go inside the library), we will put in something that makes the clip MULTIPLIES in number, so we have a higher chance of seeing (copies of) the clip.

2. Dye
Unfortunately the CCTV cannot see the tiny clips easily. So a dye (e.g. golden in color) to make the clips shine a nice catchy color on the monitor.

3. Detection of signal
Through the CCTV in the library, the glittering is spotted.

As you can see, this is really a round-about way of finding the clip. There are all sorts of ways that can go wrong. If every step results in 10% variation, the final result can have a huge quantitative variation(30% if the variation is independent and thus can be added) from a single IDENTICAL source.

And, no, the "clip" is NOT the virus itself, but a distinguished part of the virus called antigen (which your body's immune system identify the virus with). So the story goes like: a thief might have broken into the library and we know the thief has a special clip on it. We teach the CCTV to catch a signal produced by an indicator that reflects the presence of the clip after we mass produce all the small stuffs that can be found inside the library.

Yeah what the hell. No wonder the error rate can be so high, right?

p.s. I never took any biochemistry course in the college so all I know comes from self-studying. Please kindly correct me if you are an expert in the field, thank you.

題目 : 醫學 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : covid-19

[PH]The problem with "Elfs"

Elfs might be a mythical being but the concept behind the way they live is not.

Elfs are said to be very good at mixing into their natural habitat's environment, tapping resources from and nurturing the place they live in. This enables them to live very long, don't need to reproduce a lot, and easily accumulate wisdom to form an advanced civilization from which they can wield immense power.

However, in most stories, Elfs are either on the verge of extinction due to human activities or have completely disappeared from human beings' field of sight (except may be the protagonists).

This is because they don't have a culture which emphasizes reproduction (unlike the human maintstream culture where males are known to indulge in porn, behind the curtain or not), they suffer a huge blow when accidents cut their population down significantly. Secondly, their habitat OFTEN is a huge part of their source of power, and therefore they don't roam the planet surface like human beings (including HK people who like travelling when they are on holidays) do. Their reliance on the habitat and their ability to draw huge power from it often provide an alternative solution to what would be achieved by social co-operation in the human mainstream civilization. They are simply not sociable because no evolutionary force is there to push them, and they suffer from lack of "biodiversity", being unable to mix and match different ideas without hurting each other, and cannot laugh over a cup of coffee or some cans of beer over trivial gossips when they don't agree with each other on important issues. Elf's joy comes mainly from being able to draw and manipulate power from their habitats rather than social interaction like human beings. An Elf becomes evil quite easily when provoked, because as an individual they can always have a good life even if they have a lockdown with social distancing and they easily overpower their enemies if it is on one-on-one basis.

Comparing the topology of this virtual race with existing history and knowledge of the social sciences, I can see many similarities in many facets of our world, from economic and political models of countries, to social developments of individuals with different talents and upbringings.

The key element here is the propensity to find solutions from using non-human existence or other human beings when they cannot do it by themselves.

This is obviously a wide spectrum because non-human existence can have so many variations -- it can be oil, money, it can be A.I. or the internet or the corpus or the power structure, anything you name it, or it can be some virgin forests in Africa.

The "mainstream" human beings are naturally a nature destroyer (no difference in the fictional literature or reality) because they are experts in getting solutions from others and no good at using "the stuffs" themselves, while extremely reproductive (because they can only get solutions from other human beings).

A group of inefficient spenders that always enjoy a population boom is FOREVER an ecosystem disaster inviting culling from other sentient beings living on the same land.

This is the origin of our banal fantasy setting: powerful unsocial groups which easily fight over arguments sprung from conflicting values are always in the process of initiating wars which periodically accidentally cull the booming human population...thus maintaining a tragic ecosystem balance over the years.

OH GREAT. How can we get out of this sad formula?

+ + +
十多年前已在本界出入的老讀者應該還記得我寫過這個點子。今次應該寫得比上次好吧?

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

黃藍經濟的真身

最近有不少關於黃色經濟圈可行性的討論,真正的問題只有一個:政見不同,錢也不能同賺?

首先,「不能」和「不可」是兩回事。

沒有人反對外國行民主制度的多數是不同玩法的福利國家。藍圈的政治理念,係「聽話的人有糖吃」,不聽的慘死都有份。

如果「不同道,錢同賺」,的確會有很嚴重的經濟後果,無論什麼政制,都一定會係經濟崩潰收場。

民主福利的背後經濟制度的玩法(什麼政見都要搞經濟,這裡沒有異議啦應該),係人民有什麼不滿出聲,然後叫有錢在手的投資解決問題,然後生產力就會上升,達到雙羸的效果。

如果錢不是用來改善社會問題而係去了純粹「聽話」(例如打壓異見)的人手上,錢花了生產力沒有上升(因為社會問題只有因為打壓而不斷惡化),肯出錢的人只會越來越少,於是人民努力的回報只去到比例上越來越少數人的上身(因為人均生產力並沒有多大的提升),當然就不肯努力,其他的都開始做門面工作扮聽話,其實就努力「賺完就走佬」,大量人力物力花在「要人民聽話」的工作上(甚至要用人工智能「代勞」),人材卻不斷流失。

這種國家的經濟長遠並不容易搞得好。北韓就「先走一步了」。誰要跟?

香港沒有多少天然資源,所以只能選擇民主制度,搞好人權吸人才、提供優質(和全世界接軌,看重普世價值的)教育、做好預防性醫療,因為成功提升「人」的生產力,所以全民經濟在幾多場風雨之下都可以自行「再出發」,因為全世界大部分投資者都看好這種經濟模式。

不是說香港人「喪搞」黃色經濟圈很傻,而是全世界大部分投資者都覺得香港人如果夠膽選擇「藍圈」,那麼香港人才真的是傻的。就算香港的老師不講政治,只講經濟,新一代仍然會因為大部分都不能離港也不想回內地(COVID-19這一單應該嚇傻了很多小朋友,之後愛國教育說到天花龍鳳都沒用)而做出「撐黃圈」的選擇。

香港人的經濟選擇,其實代表了全世界投資者的選擇,實際上是一個「民主」制度,而外國(尤其民主福利國家)的投資者當然明白自己的市場形象是怎麼來的。

中國要GDP比全世界其他部分的GDP加上來的還高,才比較有機會財政上「征服世界(包括香港)」呢。說實在,真的有點難做到啊,比港獨難10倍的說。

p.s. 很多最近被罷的藍店因為我對其服務質素的性價比不滿,早已列入「盡量不光顧」的黑名單,所以我覺得「政見」和「質素」應該有關——因為本身質素差,所要以靠「水喉」才能繼續營運,於是「政治立場」就沒選擇了……唉。但這不代表我認為黃店即高質。低質的一樣會被淘汰的說——對整體社會質素有要求、以提高大眾生活質素為目標(而不是自己一個過得好就算數)的才是「硬黃」啦。

題目 : 香港是這樣 - 部落格分类 : 新聞報道

tag : 心理歷史學

Everything is Expensive

If Penicillin was not invented back then nearly 100 years before, I would have been dead for nearly 20 years.

A mosquito bite on my ankle which was infected by dirty rainwater would have claimed my life.

Few people knew how much hard work was spent in vain and how much clashing between the researchers was induced just to produce enough first dose of antibiotics to treat the first patient (also in vain).

It was nearly 20 years since the bread mould's antibiotic activity was noted till the first life was saved.

Nations which don't give a damn to human rights would never spend so much effort and money and such a long time just to save lives which they would argue to be "readily and cheaply replaced".

In fact, it was in the WWII during which the Penicillin saved a lot of soldiers' lives and possibly changed history to the degree where human beings no longer see themselves as savage animals which would never really have been capable of anything better than having wars against each other constantly.

When people no longer die of minor wounds and labour, mass education is worthy and technology and culture is less expensive than before because women can safely take part in them since giving birth to children is much less deadly and in less demand (coz children don't die off easily as before).

It can be predicted that SOME countries AND religions would not be happy to see a vaccine for COVID-19, which will be claiming many professional lives (who need to travel around much for their needed work) before they make it to the top (and get a Nobel prize when they are 65 or so).

I will not be surprised to see more researchers dead in the coming months.

Yup, contrary to normal beliefs, WWIII is not a war with nuclear missiles flying in the air. It is a "history changing" fight against core elements that would ultimately determine the course of human history. If we lose it to the barbarian forces, the next century we would see most human females on Earth locked indoors for life-long labours and related activities and most males barred from professional jobs and enjoying any human rights just to produce enough for the elites to have a good life as usual, like all those stories described in our history books around the world, on lives thousands years ago.

Globalization will still go on, but in the form of global slavery. Most countries would be on a permanent lockdown and information is tightly controlled in most part of the world despite widespread usage of 5G technology (which will be used to control the citizens).

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

期油負價和剩女

今天的大新聞相信是期油跌到負數,很多人聲稱跌破眼鏡。

其實熟悉「剩女」現象的人都不應該對這件事有任何奇怪的感覺。男人對女人的感情,其實比較近似期貨的邏輯——越多男人想要女,女生的價值就更高——所以越多男人有能力組織幸福家庭,女生也就更「值錢」。

但女生去到三十多歲,「因為要生兒育女所以體力上無法從事原本薪高工時長的工作,要退下薪金較低的工種,結果要男人撐起家」就像是期貨買家要接實體油的情景,所以當突然有一大堆「到(生育)期」的女人想要成家立室,而剛好市場上沒有那麼多有「承接力」的男人,這班女人就會「被沽」,大批成為剩女,吸引力跌到負數,再掙扎也沒用。

本來男人以為有個女人在身邊會對自己「有SO」,結果反而成為自己過HAPPY人生的負累……想想男人60歲理論上還可以育兒,當然係「玩多幾年先」。所以男人拍拖似買期貨,結婚生仔其實就似買了的期貨到期,買中了「搶手」的升值貨甚至可以選擇做家庭主男;買到了市場「放棄」的,就要「食實體」,即係你有儲存原油的空間(例如一層已供完或者供得輕鬆的樓安置家人),你不會蝕光,畢竟對正常人來說一個正常家庭怎麼會沒有價值(笑)……但如果搞不定要沽出,你會倒蝕(離婚還要贍養費)。

雖然每個人想要的東西都不一樣,但戀愛市場本質和油市一樣,都係有強烈的人為因素控制「產量」。當大部分年輕女生都覺得自己不會找到「有承接力」的男人,即係會發生猶如石油減產油價高企的事,男人好難找到合心水的拍拖對象、覺得女生「吊高賣」;而當大部分女生都努力想要在生育期內生育,就會變成單身想要伴的大都是三十幾歲只求成家立室但市場根本沒有足夠承接力(大部分極想要女友而未有的都是廿幾歲),變成現在石油儲量突然爆滿,「頂爛市」。

所以我贊成凍卵普及化,以穩定「市場格價」,以及鼓勵女生三十歲前結婚,如果雙方家庭資產低收入不高但學歷高(=這班人無法上公屋),政府可提供補貼以保證孩子的居住環境不會因樓價過高而太差(以前有居屋,現在太少),造成將來的醫療負擔,以減少民怨,兩個方向穩定供求。反正現代女生八十幾歲才過身,就算五十歲才生都能和孩子一起三十年。

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

Animals don't farm

There were billions of years after the first animal appeared, and before the first that farmed.

Quite a number of animals are intelligent enough to understand the process of farming. Just that no one cares to do so.

"Why would you do so much things when most of the time we have food ready for us to consume?"

The one who farmed had ancestors who lived long enough to witness and survived a famine. The story was told to the horror of its descendants and farming seemed to be able to remove the fear for most.

"But didn't every time when the climate was out, your fields failed on you also?"

The happiness of seeing a whole field of food as a result of the year's work, had brought joy to life, which is significantly much longer than dogs, cats and other animals of similar physique. Agricultural products don't run away when fed on, so you don't need to search and hunt for it. It is there where you plant it.

"However, you fight over the surplus food, and the surplus food always brings about an expanding population which leads to wars fighting over more land to farm."

The tension of having a fair fight is more exciting than fighting with, for example, tigers or bears, which are much larger and naturally more lethal with each attack. The chance to fight on equal terms brings about improvements in fighting skills and seeds courage in the cowardly hearts. Intelligence brings not only the power to find a solution, but at a prepaid-price of feeling where the problem is and being bugged about it.

"Why don't you guys just submit to nature? Dying is a part of life, be it being consumed by predators or by old age, as well as lack of food."

It is sad not being able to change the fated loss.

When one is intelligent to have the concept of "fate", it hurts when you feel you are not able to change things into a better state, not matter what you do or not do. "Fate" is not the same as "the laws of nature" -- not everyone gets consumed by predators or die of famine -- it involves a comparison of lives and an aesthetic judgement of one instance over another.

Intelligence brings a species to a different civilization level when they acknowledge that there are many possibilities of how they can live and they can work to grab one which they like better.

Different civilizations come to a different definition of what is better and work accordingly. Intelligence can bring civilizations to a higher level when histories are accumulated and collective wisdom on what and how is better emerges.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

How COVID-19 will twist the economic model we are taught

In the past, the economists had sold us a GDP-based economic model which is now demolished by COVID-19.

Countries now are facing the problem that many people are unable to go to work while the government somehow has to make sure that these people are still able to access food and shelter and other necessary stuffs to keep them alive and happy.

If COVID-19 as a pandemic is not going to leave us anytime soon, at the end most countries will have their medical system knocked out due to persistent high stress work environment (look, human beings are innately fragile), and then most people will start to realize that most of us don't actually need to work if we are ok with just having food and shelter.

What is the good of going to work 9-9 if the salary is just getting youself fed and sheltered till you are 80? (And then knocked out by some novel virus at 60 years old before you promised your round-the-world cruise trip after retirement?)

Most people would rather prefer, like our ancestors, to have a comparatively leisurely life and die at, say 30 or 45, some would even want to become gypsies.

What is so good about working yourself to death when all you can buy is just a flat as large as a private car's parking lot? Just buy a big car and live inside then. It would be much better, and you can travel around the world as you like.

In the past, people would ask about money. After COVID-19, during which many countries will eventually have to resolve to providing the people for their necessities (either through direct allocation or paying them a proportion of their original salary), with the extreme case where the US has announced unlimited QE, it means that the old world of "hard work and good pay" is really passing away.

Countries, irrespective of their values or political setups, will have to run like the Danish government in order to survive this ordeal.

Educators will now have to inspire people to learn by oneself, not for the purpose of certification or jobs, not under the supervision of someone else, but for interest and developing a specialty, something you can be proud of in a world where everybody will get fed and sheltered.

I am sorry that I have not been able to produce a science fiction ahead of time to describe this new world. What I can say, is that most people, who cannot find an important post to contribute to the society and feel their self-worth, will soon perish due to over-entertainment, or being bored by the very-limited trinkets they can afford to enjoy, either way will induce depression and self-destruct behavior, as predicted by many SF writers.

Governments can command the people to "return to normal" after several years (by which people in general will get "herd immunity"), but people's heart will be changed forever.

p.s. I am not too optimistic for an efficient vaccine because -- look, where IS the SARS or the MERS vaccine??!!! Even the herpes vaccine is not recommended to people except those from the high-risk group...

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

COVID-19 and education

If you use a COVID-19 parable to describe the different types of education style, you would see how the Asians are getting themselves into deep water again and again.

The perfect scenario is to have people being infected by the virus batch by batch, depending on hospital capacity. If there are only 5000 beds available to treat such patients, then allow 40000 people each time, for example, to be "free and working". Then around 5000 will get sick enough to be hospitalized.

Denmark's higher education is exactly like that. Just like ICU beds are expensive and limited in supplies, so is higher education. Rather than having people dying out due to insufficient beds, it is better to spread the people out -- some would work for several years and back for a university degree, while some would not get back as they can make enough money for their family, not till they need to change their career path.

If people are allowed to die due to insufficient beds, social upheavals will be incubated. Worse, admitting all the patients is just like expanding the higher education too quickly -- the education system will collapse such that graduates can no longer get a good job because of lowered teaching standards due to insufficient resources. Just like COVID-19, where people should stay home and keep themselves healthy, or accept that if they are only showing mild syndromes, they should be quarantined at home, students should be able to self-study while the bosses should trust that self-studying is enough -- that would ease up much human resources to help those with special needs, and save so much money, time and energy just for the purpose of certification (and creating inequality between the poor and the rich). It is very important that expensive help should be given to those who really need it.

Self discipline and trust is what makes the day. The two comes as a pair.

Yes, in my eyes, Denmark has done well this time with the COVID-19 challenge, as it has with the education and work culture.

題目 : 論文。報告。心得 - 部落格分类 : 學術文藝

tag : 心理歷史學

自我介紹

溫的若

Author:溫的若
人類有很多不同的屬性,有一兩種偏離正常(就當是十分之一吧)是很平常的。假設人有5種互相沒有關係的屬性,五個數值都是「正常」的機會只有一半左右。
但是如果五個數值之中,同時有三種是「不正常」的,那麼100人之中,就只有不到一人,堪稱「異界人」了。

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